Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | MIZ -150 TA&M +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TA&M +9 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | MIZ -1.3 (-10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (-27.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TA&M -0.5 (-8.5) | 146.6 (-17.6) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -2.3 (-11.3) | 154.2 (-25.2) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -1.6 (-10.6) | 153.2 (-24.2) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -2.0 (-11.0) | 154.3 (-25.3) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | MIZ 86 – 85 TA&M |
| Feb 8, 2025 | TA&M 67 – 64 MIZ |
| Feb 8, 2024 | TA&M 79 – 60 MIZ |
| Jan 24, 2024 | TA&M 63 – 57 MIZ |
| Jan 12, 2023 | TA&M 82 – 64 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 15-3 |
| Home | 16-3 | 15-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#63) | 11.0 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.26 (#23) | 1.92 (#44) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#38) | 2.21 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#31) | 0.578 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 36.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 34.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.1% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 62.1% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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