Betting Lines
| Spread | UNF -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | APSU +140 UNF -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +2 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | UNF -1.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNF -2.2 (+4.2) | 145.0 (-1.0) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNF -1.9 (+3.9) | 145.8 (-1.8) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNF -2.1 (+4.1) | 144.6 (-0.6) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNF -2.3 (+4.3) | 144.8 (-0.8) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | APSU 77 – 76 UNF |
| Jan 2, 2026 | APSU 102 – 83 UNF |
| Mar 3, 2025 | APSU 90 – 69 UNF |
| Jan 2, 2025 | APSU 97 – 89 UNF |
| Mar 6, 2024 | APSU 101 – 98 UNF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-8 | 11-2 |
| Away | 1-13 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.6 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 79.0 |
| Massey | -9.7 (#330) | -5.1 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.77 (#326) | -0.18 (#195) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.15 (#328) | -0.29 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.421 (#318) | 0.500 (#183) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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