Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | XAV -1200 DEP +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +14 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -16.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.9 (-11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -14.1 (-0.1) | 158.3 (-8.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -13.3 (+0.7) | 158.2 (-8.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -13.5 (+0.5) | 157.2 (-7.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -13.8 (+0.2) | 157.5 (-7.5) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | XAV 68 – 66 DEP |
| Jan 3, 2026 | DEP 86 – 77 XAV |
| Feb 15, 2025 | XAV 85 – 68 DEP |
| Jan 11, 2025 | XAV 77 – 63 DEP |
| Feb 29, 2024 | XAV 91 – 58 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 3-17 |
| Home | 15-2 | 7-8 |
| Away | 7-4 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 77.3 |
| Massey | 13.0 (#23) | 0.2 (#164) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#20) | 0.09 (#161) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.22 (#13) | 0.15 (#160) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#21) | 0.493 (#192) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.1% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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