Betting Lines
| Spread | UPST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | HPU +100 UPST +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +15 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -0.7 (+14.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.9 (-0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -0.1 (+14.9) | 146.2 (+0.8) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -1.0 (+14.0) | 146.5 (+0.5) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -0.1 (+14.9) | 146.6 (+0.4) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UPST -0.0 (+15.0) | 147.6 (-0.6) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | HPU 95 – 70 UPST |
| Jan 18, 2026 | HPU 89 – 69 UPST |
| Feb 27, 2025 | HPU 88 – 66 UPST |
| Jan 23, 2025 | HPU 86 – 77 UPST |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UPST 86 – 81 HPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-5 | 11-2 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 70.8 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#312) | -5.5 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#279) | -0.54 (#231) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.62 (#290) | -0.77 (#238) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#284) | 0.470 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 31.7% |
Game Analysis
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