Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | UTSA +750 UAB -1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +5 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | UAB -13.8 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.4 (+2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAB -13.1 (+8.1) | 157.3 (+3.7) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAB -12.2 (+7.2) | 157.3 (+3.7) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAB -13.4 (+8.4) | 158.1 (+2.9) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAB -12.6 (+7.6) | 157.9 (+3.1) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | UAB 83 – 73 UTSA |
| Jan 22, 2025 | UAB 81 – 78 UTSA |
| Jan 3, 2024 | UAB 78 – 76 UTSA |
| Dec 31, 2022 | UAB 90 – 67 UTSA |
| Feb 25, 2022 | UAB 68 – 56 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 29-10 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 14-6 |
| Home | 8-10 | 17-2 |
| Away | 2-11 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 80.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#315) | 9.0 (#56) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#297) | 1.28 (#71) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#299) | 1.75 (#63) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#312) | 0.548 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 14.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 37.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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