Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.0 Under |
| Money | UTSA +210 UAB -260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +2 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | UTSA -0.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.1 (-11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTSA -0.1 (-2.1) | 158.2 (-4.2) | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAB -1.5 (-0.5) | 158.1 (-4.1) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTSA -0.5 (-2.5) | 156.8 (-2.8) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTSA -0.2 (-2.2) | 158.2 (-4.2) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | UAB 83 – 73 UTSA |
| Jan 22, 2025 | UAB 81 – 78 UTSA |
| Feb 18, 2023 | UAB 83 – 78 UTSA |
| Dec 31, 2022 | UAB 90 – 67 UTSA |
| Feb 25, 2022 | UAB 68 – 56 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-9 | 12-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.6 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#288) | -3.1 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#297) | 0.21 (#155) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.81 (#296) | -0.20 (#187) |
| RPI | 0.399 (#331) | 0.501 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 13.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 37.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 32.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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