Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | UTSA +675 UAB -1050 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +10 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | UAB -16.6 (+6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (+4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAB -12.2 (+2.2) | 148.3 (+7.7) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAB -13.0 (+3.0) | 148.2 (+7.8) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAB -13.0 (+3.0) | 145.9 (+10.1) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAB -12.6 (+2.6) | 147.0 (+9.0) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2025 | UAB 81 – 78 UTSA |
| Jan 3, 2024 | UAB 78 – 76 UTSA |
| Feb 18, 2023 | UAB 83 – 78 UTSA |
| Dec 31, 2022 | UAB 90 – 67 UTSA |
| Feb 25, 2022 | UAB 68 – 56 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-25 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 11-7 |
| Home | 2-12 | 8-9 |
| Away | 2-12 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 78.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.9 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -15.9 (#352) | 3.9 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.17 (#339) | 0.29 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.73 (#336) | 0.46 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.420 (#314) | 0.505 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.0% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 27.1% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 40.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.9% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 12.6% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 61.8% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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