Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | UNCA -125 GWEB +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +12 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -3.8 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (+3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -3.8 (+8.2) | 139.1 (-1.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -2.7 (+9.3) | 135.4 (+2.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -3.8 (+8.2) | 137.1 (+0.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -3.2 (+8.8) | 137.9 (+0.1) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UNCA 77 – 71 GWEB |
| Jan 29, 2026 | UNCA 69 – 50 GWEB |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UNCA 78 – 70 GWEB |
| Jan 23, 2025 | UNCA 61 – 53 GWEB |
| Mar 9, 2024 | UNCA 83 – 72 GWEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-0 | 8-5 |
| Away | 10-6 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 66.7 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#168) | -0.1 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#113) | -0.45 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#126) | -0.51 (#218) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#93) | 0.490 (#197) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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