Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | UNCA -270 GWEB +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +8 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -5.8 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.5 (-9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -6.0 (+2.0) | 152.3 (-4.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -5.5 (+2.5) | 150.3 (-2.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -6.1 (+1.9) | 153.1 (-5.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -5.2 (+2.8) | 151.6 (-3.6) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UNCA 77 – 71 GWEB |
| Jan 29, 2026 | UNCA 69 – 50 GWEB |
| Jan 23, 2025 | UNCA 61 – 53 GWEB |
| Mar 9, 2024 | UNCA 83 – 72 GWEB |
| Feb 24, 2024 | GWEB 78 – 77 UNCA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 5-11 |
| Home | 13-1 | 5-6 |
| Away | 6-9 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.5 | 78.1 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#185) | -4.0 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#109) | -0.56 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#124) | -0.71 (#221) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#74) | 0.484 (#207) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 65.1% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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