Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | UNCA -250 GWEB +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GWEB +1 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCA -6.5 (-7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.0 (+3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -6.8 (-7.8) | 149.3 (+5.7) | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -5.7 (-6.7) | 150.1 (+4.9) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -7.0 (-8.0) | 152.0 (+3.0) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -6.7 (-7.7) | 150.3 (+4.7) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UNCA 77 – 71 GWEB |
| Jan 29, 2026 | UNCA 69 – 50 GWEB |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UNCA 78 – 70 GWEB |
| Jan 23, 2025 | UNCA 61 – 53 GWEB |
| Mar 9, 2024 | UNCA 83 – 72 GWEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 11-5 |
| Home | 12-2 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-7 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#156) | -2.7 (#212) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#130) | -0.29 (#201) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#135) | -0.52 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#90) | 0.513 (#151) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 33.3% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 30.4% |
Game Analysis
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