Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | MUR -1000 EVAN +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +16 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -12.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.5 (-10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -10.0 (+6.0) | 146.9 (-14.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -13.6 (+2.4) | 143.0 (-11.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -10.6 (+5.4) | 144.7 (-12.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -9.4 (+6.6) | 145.2 (-13.2) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | MUR 88 – 75 EVAN |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MUR 79 – 69 EVAN |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MUR 74 – 53 EVAN |
| Jan 30, 2025 | EVAN 78 – 74 MUR |
| Dec 4, 2024 | MUR 63 – 61 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 1-19 |
| Home | 11-2 | 3-10 |
| Away | 3-11 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 76.0 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#228) | -12.4 (#349) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#155) | -1.89 (#332) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#177) | -2.33 (#334) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#181) | 0.408 (#335) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 21.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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