Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | MUR -1600 EVAN +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +13 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -16.2 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.9 (+4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -14.1 (-1.1) | 151.2 (+11.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -13.3 (-0.3) | 151.8 (+11.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -13.1 (-0.1) | 151.5 (+11.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -13.4 (-0.4) | 151.4 (+11.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | MUR 79 – 69 EVAN |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MUR 74 – 53 EVAN |
| Jan 30, 2025 | EVAN 78 – 74 MUR |
| Dec 4, 2024 | MUR 63 – 61 EVAN |
| Feb 10, 2024 | MUR 73 – 70 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 3-17 |
| Home | 12-3 | 5-10 |
| Away | 5-7 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.1 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 78.3 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#108) | -8.6 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#99) | -1.70 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#110) | -1.96 (#305) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#91) | 0.434 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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