Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | MUR -300 EVAN +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +3 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -7.6 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (+2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -6.3 (-3.3) | 136.2 (+6.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -4.0 (-1.0) | 135.7 (+7.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -4.3 (-1.3) | 136.9 (+6.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -4.9 (-1.9) | 136.9 (+6.1) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | MUR 88 – 75 EVAN |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MUR 79 – 69 EVAN |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MUR 74 – 53 EVAN |
| Jan 30, 2025 | EVAN 78 – 74 MUR |
| Dec 4, 2024 | MUR 63 – 61 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 6-14 |
| Home | 8-8 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 74.0 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#133) | -2.0 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#219) | 0.62 (#124) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#166) | 0.37 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#203) | 0.533 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 21.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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