Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | EVAN +210 MUR -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EVAN +4 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -4.7 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.1 (+19.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -3.2 (+7.2) | 135.1 (+16.9) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -3.4 (+7.4) | 134.6 (+17.4) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -3.7 (+7.7) | 135.5 (+16.5) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -3.4 (+7.4) | 135.4 (+16.6) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | MUR 88 – 75 EVAN |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MUR 79 – 69 EVAN |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MUR 74 – 53 EVAN |
| Dec 4, 2024 | MUR 63 – 61 EVAN |
| Feb 10, 2024 | MUR 73 – 70 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 9-11 |
| Home | 7-9 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.1 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#269) | 1.3 (#142) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#261) | 0.36 (#148) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#240) | 0.46 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#260) | 0.523 (#134) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 21.0% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 30.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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