Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | EVAN +340 MUR -440 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +10 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | MUR -11.7 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -10.5 (+0.5) | 151.0 (-3.0) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -11.3 (+1.3) | 146.9 (+1.1) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -10.3 (+0.3) | 147.3 (+0.7) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -11.7 (+1.7) | 149.0 (-1.0) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | MUR 88 – 75 EVAN |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MUR 74 – 53 EVAN |
| Jan 30, 2025 | EVAN 78 – 74 MUR |
| Dec 4, 2024 | MUR 63 – 61 EVAN |
| Feb 10, 2024 | MUR 73 – 70 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 12-8 |
| Home | 5-10 | 12-3 |
| Away | 1-12 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 83.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.3 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#268) | 8.8 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.64 (#294) | 1.76 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#268) | 2.07 (#74) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#249) | 0.565 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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