Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | MUR -250 EVAN +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +21 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -5.7 (+15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -4.4 (+16.6) | 132.6 (-5.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -4.1 (+16.9) | 132.3 (-5.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -4.5 (+16.5) | 131.6 (-4.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -4.2 (+16.8) | 133.1 (-6.1) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | MUR 88 – 75 EVAN |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MUR 79 – 69 EVAN |
| Jan 30, 2025 | EVAN 78 – 74 MUR |
| Dec 4, 2024 | MUR 63 – 61 EVAN |
| Feb 10, 2024 | MUR 73 – 70 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 8-12 |
| Home | 8-5 | 7-9 |
| Away | 5-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 65.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#153) | -5.2 (#249) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#155) | -0.64 (#227) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#159) | -0.77 (#228) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#171) | 0.470 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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