Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | MUR -1200 EVAN +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +2 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -17.8 (-15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (-20.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -14.2 (-12.2) | 144.7 (-20.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -11.7 (-9.7) | 142.7 (-18.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -11.9 (-9.9) | 143.2 (-19.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -13.5 (-11.5) | 144.8 (-20.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | MUR 88 – 75 EVAN |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MUR 79 – 69 EVAN |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MUR 74 – 53 EVAN |
| Jan 30, 2025 | EVAN 78 – 74 MUR |
| Feb 10, 2024 | MUR 73 – 70 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 8-12 |
| Home | 8-5 | 7-9 |
| Away | 5-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 65.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#77) | -6.1 (#280) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#96) | -0.15 (#188) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.82 (#60) | 0.28 (#145) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#111) | 0.472 (#229) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 21.6% |
| FT Rate | 34.6% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 31.2% |
Game Analysis
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