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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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84–40 on winners spread MAE 8.2 124 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
St. Bonaventure @ Dayton +8.1 138.0 81% 71–76 ✓
Ohio State @ Iowa +5.3 151.7 72% 77–79 ✓
Cornell @ Dartmouth -13.5 143.0 14% 56–53 ✓
Siena @ Rider +10.0 135.1 86% 50–91 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Manhattan -7.2 145.3 22% 77–71 ✓
Niagara @ Saint Peter's +5.4 134.9 73% 68–59 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Marist +2.6 131.4 64% 76–58 ✗
Fairfield @ Iona +2.8 144.9 65% 82–91 ✓
Princeton @ Yale +1.4 142.3 56% 64–70 ✓
Columbia @ Harvard +3.6 146.1 68% 59–62 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Brown -0.0 144.3 51% 61–70 ✗
Butler @ Creighton +8.3 150.9 79% 99–98 ✗
Toledo @ Akron +6.4 142.6 73% 70–77 ✓
San José State @ Nevada +12.7 142.9 87% 60–90 ✓
UConn @ St. John's -2.9 141.6 37% 77–64 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Miami +3.4 146.6 66% 74–82 ✓
Penn State @ Indiana +4.0 146.9 70% 85–71 ✗
Navy @ Colgate +12.6 131.3 86% 64–88 ✓
Arkansas @ LSU +5.3 149.7 70% 74–95 ✓
George Mason @ Massachusetts +4.6 146.0 68% 65–66 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ La Salle -3.7 145.7 36% 88–82 ✓
Duquesne @ Rhode Island -2.9 141.8 38% 85–71 ✓
Wichita State @ Memphis +10.0 152.5 84% 63–65 ✓
Lehigh @ Boston University +0.5 133.0 51% 71–72 ✓
South Carolina @ Georgia +0.6 137.8 51% 72–62 ✗
Ball State @ Western Michigan +0.7 144.7 53% 77–67 ✗
Robert Morris @ Detroit Mercy -7.9 147.0 22% 75–67 ✓
Cleveland State @ Oakland +5.8 148.8 77% 71–83 ✓
Grambling @ Jackson State +1.8 134.4 58% 70–62 ✗
Marquette @ Georgetown -11.6 149.3 16% 91–57 ✓
Texas @ TCU +5.5 151.4 72% 77–66 ✗
Virginia @ Clemson +5.7 132.1 70% 66–65 ✗
Kansas State @ Oklahoma State -1.5 136.7 43% 72–75 ✗
East Carolina @ Charlotte +8.3 129.9 80% 52–67 ✓
Southern Illinois @ UIC -1.5 134.4 41% 74–71 ✓
Murray State @ Northern Iowa +5.3 137.5 73% 71–43 ✗
Belmont @ Missouri State +4.6 148.5 70% 80–87 ✓
Bradley @ Illinois State -6.9 133.4 25% 73–60 ✓
Winthrop @ UNC Asheville +2.2 147.9 63% 78–82 ✓
Longwood @ Charleston Southern -4.2 137.6 33% 77–83 ✗
Monmouth @ Delaware +4.4 142.9 70% 80–84 ✓
Charleston @ William & Mary -8.2 149.9 20% 84–83 ✓
Northwestern @ Minnesota +1.4 143.5 56% 66–75 ✓
Le Moyne @ Sacred Heart +1.5 147.2 62% 81–87 ✓
Wagner @ Stonehill -5.2 126.4 25% 61–71 ✗
Miami (OH) @ Ohio +5.3 145.3 73% 69–78 ✓
VMI @ Mercer +10.9 142.0 86% 69–90 ✓
Binghamton @ Vermont +13.2 134.3 88% 49–62 ✓
Sam Houston @ Florida International -3.5 147.6 34% 61–68 ✗
Fordham @ Saint Louis +0.8 145.4 52% 67–65 ✗
California @ Arizona State +3.2 144.7 68% 81–66 ✗
Rice @ UTSA -0.7 154.3 47% 80–76 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Merrimack +4.3 129.9 70% 68–71 ✓
App State @ Georgia Southern -12.2 144.4 15% 85–84 ✓
Bryant @ Maine -0.1 137.7 48% 72–79 ✗
Utah State @ San Diego State +3.2 146.8 65% 67–81 ✓
Missouri @ Vanderbilt -2.4 136.5 41% 61–68 ✗
UL Monroe @ Arkansas State +8.5 147.3 82% 80–95 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Alabama State +5.3 135.5 74% 79–68 ✗
Houston @ Kansas -2.5 132.5 38% 65–78 ✗
Oklahoma @ UCF -0.7 134.6 50% 63–74 ✗
Hampton @ Howard +8.6 149.4 82% 63–61 ✗
Evansville @ Valparaiso -0.5 140.3 46% 63–62 ✓
Radford @ South Carolina Upstate -2.8 136.9 36% 69–78 ✗
Elon @ North Carolina A&T +0.8 146.4 51% 69–65 ✗
Rutgers @ Michigan +3.7 137.9 67% 69–59 ✗
Florida @ Texas A&M +1.3 152.7 58% 66–67 ✓
Richmond @ VCU +2.0 133.1 58% 52–63 ✓
Bucknell @ American University +1.7 135.3 59% 66–75 ✓
Air Force @ Boise State +12.8 137.4 87% 56–94 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Northern Illinois +6.5 144.2 76% 66–76 ✓
Western Carolina @ Wofford -1.2 148.6 46% 86–88 ✗
The Citadel @ East Tennessee State +4.2 134.4 68% 60–62 ✓
Old Dominion @ James Madison +16.6 153.6 89% 63–78 ✓
Troy @ Georgia State -1.6 148.2 45% 78–74 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Marshall +8.5 148.8 82% 74–91 ✓
Bellarmine @ Queens University +3.8 148.2 67% 75–85 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Utah Valley -6.3 140.4 26% 86–67 ✓
Idaho State @ Northern Arizona +1.5 139.8 56% 81–79 ✗
Morgan State @ South Carolina State +4.9 150.1 71% 72–70 ✗
Southern @ Alcorn State -2.0 144.4 42% 71–70 ✓
Delaware State @ Norfolk State +7.7 134.1 79% 64–65 ✓
Coppin State @ North Carolina Central +11.4 129.7 86% 46–77 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Northwestern State -0.5 139.0 45% 57–70 ✗
Morehead State @ Tennessee Tech -11.6 131.7 14% 67–60 ✓
Houston Christian @ Nicholls +10.5 149.7 86% 73–83 ✓
Samford @ Chattanooga +1.4 156.3 57% 78–56 ✗
Southern Indiana @ Tennessee State +8.4 137.7 81% 74–79 ✓
UT Martin @ SIU Edwardsville +1.6 142.0 61% 90–79 ✗
Little Rock @ Eastern Illinois -0.3 139.0 48% 71–47 ✓
Lamar @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +3.1 143.8 69% 71–79 ✓
North Dakota State @ North Dakota +3.9 148.0 70% 58–60 ✓
McNeese @ SE Louisiana -12.0 134.8 15% 74–77 ✗
Stetson @ Central Arkansas -6.7 150.3 26% 73–62 ✓
Western Illinois @ Southeast Missouri State -7.0 129.2 22% 76–55 ✓
Colorado @ Utah +2.7 151.4 63% 68–73 ✓
Florida A&M @ Alabama A&M +0.8 147.4 50% 61–73 ✓
Holy Cross @ Loyola Maryland +1.9 136.7 57% 70–67 ✗
Jacksonville @ Lipscomb +9.0 149.2 85% 82–84 ✓
Central Michigan @ Bowling Green +4.4 139.0 70% 77–76 ✗
New Hampshire @ UMass Lowell +6.9 147.2 79% 89–73 ✗
Incarnate Word @ New Orleans +0.6 153.7 48% 82–80 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Kennesaw State +1.5 157.9 61% 86–76 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ Tarleton State +1.9 141.8 61% 64–75 ✓
UT Arlington @ Utah Tech -2.1 146.2 43% 87–66 ✓
Southern Miss @ Texas State +0.6 133.0 56% 55–60 ✓
North Florida @ Austin Peay +1.5 143.3 59% 91–95 ✓
Georgia Tech @ NC State +7.2 145.8 76% 76–82 ✓
Maryland @ Michigan State +7.6 131.3 77% 54–63 ✓
Cincinnati @ Texas Tech +3.4 140.7 66% 75–72 ✗
Auburn @ Ole Miss -3.0 146.3 38% 91–77 ✓
Tulsa @ Florida Atlantic +13.2 156.0 88% 70–102 ✓
BYU @ West Virginia -12.4 146.6 16% 86–73 ✓
Lafayette @ Army -1.0 121.5 43% 64–56 ✓
Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh +10.8 131.9 86% 60–70 ✓
South Florida @ North Texas +4.5 130.5 65% 60–55 ✗
Drake @ Indiana State +5.5 155.6 71% 67–75 ✓
Towson @ Hofstra +2.3 134.2 61% 56–59 ✓
Columbia @ Dartmouth -5.3 135.3 30% 72–56 ✓
Princeton @ Brown -10.2 140.0 17% 70–60 ✓
UC Davis @ Cal Poly -7.9 130.7 22% 59–52 ✓
Duke @ North Carolina +7.5 150.1 77% 84–93 ✓
Northeastern @ Stony Brook +4.7 144.0 71% 55–59 ✓
Texas Southern @ Prairie View A&M -0.1 136.7 52% 80–69 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.