Then she opened up a book of poems and handed it to me, written by an Italian poet from the thirteenth century. "Tangled Up in Blue" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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40–15 on winners spread MAE 8.8 55 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Oregon State @ USC +5.7 142.0 71% 54–82 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Mississippi Valley State -8.8 146.2 20% 83–77 ✓
Presbyterian @ High Point +11.7 153.3 87% 68–78 ✓
Campbell @ UNC Wilmington +11.3 140.2 88% 74–77 ✓
San Diego @ Santa Clara +10.6 153.0 88% 70–59 ✗
Saint Francis @ Long Island University +1.5 137.3 58% 67–70 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Yale +11.8 142.7 86% 58–74 ✓
Cornell @ Harvard -3.1 149.4 33% 89–76 ✓
UMBC @ UAlbany +7.6 165.5 78% 114–102 ✗
UC San Diego @ Long Beach State -2.1 144.9 41% 76–85 ✗
Sacramento State @ Portland State +5.8 138.7 73% 51–58 ✓
Syracuse @ Wake Forest +6.2 146.5 73% 70–99 ✓
Iowa State @ Baylor +2.7 149.6 62% 68–70 ✓
Florida State @ Louisville -6.9 146.5 24% 92–101 ✗
Wyoming @ UNLV +6.9 146.9 77% 48–62 ✓
Pepperdine @ Portland -1.1 149.3 48% 89–93 ✗
South Alabama @ Louisiana +12.2 146.7 86% 60–80 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Kansas City -1.2 138.0 44% 71–56 ✓
Denver @ Oral Roberts +2.7 161.2 65% 76–82 ✓
Seattle U @ California Baptist +1.5 134.3 56% 61–60 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Western Kentucky +6.9 138.1 79% 65–88 ✓
UC Riverside @ Cal State Northridge +3.5 141.0 65% 70–76 ✓
Weber State @ Northern Colorado +1.0 152.0 59% 82–63 ✗
Idaho @ Montana State +7.7 140.1 79% 81–75 ✗
Tennessee @ Kentucky -0.3 156.7 50% 103–92 ✓
Mississippi State @ Alabama +10.1 157.4 83% 67–99 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ North Alabama +1.4 145.3 62% 69–70 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Southern Utah +8.8 151.4 82% 59–79 ✓
Washington State @ Washington +0.5 150.9 54% 90–87 ✗
Jacksonville State @ New Mexico State +1.0 133.3 54% 65–67 ✓
Liberty @ UTEP -1.2 138.8 45% 67–65 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Montana +2.3 145.9 64% 78–65 ✗
Xavier @ DePaul -14.7 145.2 14% 93–68 ✓
Colorado State @ Fresno State -10.6 144.8 16% 73–61 ✓
Pacific @ San Francisco +20.2 141.4 91% 73–79 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Bakersfield -0.8 138.7 47% 70–59 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC Irvine +11.0 133.9 87% 68–93 ✓
Oregon @ UCLA -0.7 133.2 47% 63–71 ✗
Saint Mary's @ Gonzaga +5.1 136.4 67% 64–62 ✗
Purdue @ Wisconsin -1.4 149.4 41% 75–69 ✓
Davidson @ Loyola Chicago +3.0 135.8 67% 63–76 ✓
Rider @ Iona +5.8 142.7 76% 93–94 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Siena -9.1 133.6 19% 68–61 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Marist +0.3 121.9 49% 52–63 ✓
Manhattan @ Fairfield +11.0 146.9 87% 68–77 ✓
Canisius @ Quinnipiac +6.9 147.8 80% 63–88 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Furman +2.2 148.0 63% 89–87 ✗
Youngstown State @ Purdue Fort Wayne -1.0 147.6 45% 78–82 ✗
Wright State @ Northern Kentucky +1.9 159.1 55% 85–78 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Milwaukee +11.6 150.6 87% 67–87 ✓
Temple @ Tulane +9.4 153.0 83% 80–92 ✓
South Dakota @ South Dakota State +11.4 152.2 87% 67–70 ✓
UAB @ SMU +10.7 148.5 86% 69–72 ✓
Providence @ Villanova +1.9 139.9 61% 50–68 ✓
Nebraska @ Illinois +9.2 155.8 82% 84–87 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.