He took it all too far, but boy could he play guitar. "Ziggy Stardust" - David Bowie
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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77–40 on winners spread MAE 9.4 117 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Yale @ Pennsylvania -1.9 143.4 38% 64–66 ✗
Harvard @ Columbia -8.0 141.4 20% 83–65 ✓
Brown @ Princeton +4.7 145.4 72% 67–78 ✓
Canisius @ Rider +9.5 141.7 82% 81–78 ✗
Niagara @ Mount St. Mary's -0.4 132.7 47% 66–70 ✗
Fairfield @ Marist -1.0 130.0 45% 70–61 ✓
Manhattan @ Iona +16.0 141.3 90% 60–71 ✓
Dayton @ Loyola Chicago -7.9 134.4 20% 65–49 ✓
Wright State @ Cleveland State +1.8 150.9 60% 68–85 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Purdue Fort Wayne +1.0 134.1 56% 63–50 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Oakland -0.4 158.6 53% 96–74 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Siena +2.3 140.4 64% 66–63 ✗
Utah Tech @ Southern Utah +6.5 154.6 77% 71–81 ✓
Air Force @ Wyoming +2.8 136.6 64% 75–69 ✗
New Mexico @ San José State +0.4 145.3 54% 96–68 ✗
Abilene Christian @ Grand Canyon +6.1 145.7 75% 84–94 ✓
Notre Dame @ Virginia +13.5 131.1 88% 55–57 ✓
Illinois @ Indiana +3.5 141.9 68% 68–71 ✓
Seton Hall @ UConn +10.9 136.7 86% 55–64 ✓
Texas Tech @ West Virginia +6.6 147.3 74% 78–72 ✗
Boston College @ Florida State +1.3 145.8 59% 75–69 ✗
Rutgers @ Wisconsin -0.6 122.6 49% 58–57 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Chattanooga +0.4 142.6 51% 93–76 ✗
William & Mary @ Northeastern +2.6 137.0 63% 57–69 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Davidson +4.7 143.8 70% 75–76 ✓
Tennessee @ Kentucky -3.1 135.0 36% 54–66 ✗
Bucknell @ Boston University +2.4 135.2 63% 61–77 ✓
UMBC @ New Hampshire +0.0 135.7 51% 66–75 ✓
Binghamton @ UMass Lowell +12.3 143.7 87% 70–84 ✓
South Carolina @ LSU +8.6 132.7 80% 82–73 ✗
Samford @ VMI -10.9 146.1 15% 96–61 ✓
Wofford @ The Citadel -1.6 146.3 44% 72–68 ✓
Stonehill @ Central Connecticut +0.5 130.0 53% 90–94 ✓
Saint Francis @ Long Island University -6.0 143.7 23% 93–82 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Southern Miss +10.2 139.7 84% 62–73 ✓
Oklahoma @ Texas +11.4 146.4 87% 83–85 ✓
Iowa State @ Kansas State +3.3 136.7 65% 55–61 ✓
Wake Forest @ Miami +7.4 159.4 78% 87–96 ✓
Oklahoma State @ TCU +4.8 140.0 69% 75–100 ✓
Holy Cross @ Colgate +15.3 147.5 88% 73–96 ✓
Lehigh @ American University +4.0 134.2 67% 62–59 ✗
Illinois State @ Indiana State +14.8 148.4 89% 64–80 ✓
UAlbany @ Maine +8.5 140.6 81% 72–74 ✓
Florida @ Arkansas +6.3 141.5 73% 65–84 ✓
Massachusetts @ Rhode Island +1.4 140.5 58% 69–45 ✗
Presbyterian @ Campbell +8.1 132.4 79% 57–74 ✓
Western Carolina @ Mercer +3.0 140.8 65% 71–68 ✗
Ohio @ Central Michigan -5.6 145.2 28% 76–59 ✓
Merrimack @ Sacred Heart +2.4 131.6 61% 67–55 ✗
Texas State @ Coastal Carolina +0.2 139.9 50% 78–75 ✗
Green Bay @ Youngstown State +19.5 147.9 91% 65–95 ✓
Elon @ Monmouth +1.1 137.5 50% 75–68 ✗
Queens University @ Kennesaw State +6.3 154.4 76% 83–76 ✗
Fordham @ VCU +5.9 135.8 72% 61–80 ✓
Ball State @ Western Michigan -7.8 147.5 21% 68–78 ✗
Charlotte @ Louisiana Tech +1.6 130.6 56% 74–67 ✗
UT Arlington @ Stephen F. Austin +9.0 137.9 83% 75–70 ✗
Radford @ Longwood +3.0 131.1 65% 63–73 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ UNC Asheville +3.8 137.1 70% 63–75 ✓
Georgia State @ Arkansas State -0.4 130.5 47% 70–75 ✗
South Dakota @ Denver +3.8 147.0 67% 68–86 ✓
Lindenwood @ Morehead State +8.1 131.5 79% 58–71 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Idaho +2.4 149.0 62% 72–50 ✗
Mississippi State @ Ole Miss -2.3 130.4 36% 69–61 ✓
Baylor @ Kansas +4.2 152.1 70% 71–87 ✓
DePaul @ Xavier +13.5 157.2 88% 68–82 ✓
Howard @ Coppin State -4.6 159.0 29% 80–70 ✓
South Carolina State @ Maryland Eastern Shore +10.1 151.0 84% 62–78 ✓
Southern @ Grambling +3.2 135.0 66% 64–69 ✓
Alcorn State @ Jackson State +0.5 145.8 53% 75–60 ✗
North Carolina Central @ Delaware State -9.1 138.7 20% 66–58 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Missouri State +4.9 131.1 70% 69–66 ✗
Evansville @ Murray State +10.6 144.7 86% 58–74 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Navy +12.1 136.2 87% 53–65 ✓
UAB @ UTSA -13.4 158.1 14% 83–78 ✓
Morgan State @ Norfolk State +11.5 146.1 86% 50–72 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Nicholls +10.6 146.5 84% 74–84 ✓
La Salle @ George Mason +4.9 137.5 70% 66–70 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ High Point +0.1 146.6 49% 66–81 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Wagner +3.1 141.1 66% 66–48 ✗
UL Monroe @ South Alabama +12.2 134.9 86% 45–81 ✓
Old Dominion @ App State +1.7 129.9 58% 74–63 ✗
UT Martin @ Tennessee Tech +0.4 149.3 53% 100–91 ✗
UNC Wilmington @ Delaware -1.6 138.6 42% 66–75 ✗
North Carolina A&T @ Towson +11.0 145.7 87% 75–87 ✓
Drexel @ Hampton -7.6 135.6 22% 72–75 ✗
UC Davis @ UC Irvine +8.3 146.5 80% 76–78 ✓
North Florida @ Austin Peay -2.1 144.6 40% 71–73 ✗
Villanova @ Providence +7.5 142.0 79% 72–85 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Northwestern State +13.1 153.6 88% 68–65 ✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ McNeese -6.0 145.0 26% 77–54 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Northern Illinois +6.8 148.7 77% 66–65 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee State +0.7 146.2 53% 85–100 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Little Rock +2.5 149.5 61% 77–81 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech +1.5 147.2 57% 72–79 ✓
Colorado State @ Fresno State +1.1 135.3 56% 60–57 ✗
Toledo @ Bowling Green -8.0 160.7 21% 91–86 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Southeast Missouri State +2.6 157.3 63% 80–85 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Eastern Washington +9.0 155.1 82% 77–89 ✓
SE Louisiana @ East Texas A&M +0.7 148.2 52% 78–76 ✗
Winthrop @ Charleston Southern -0.2 150.0 47% 75–67 ✓
Georgia @ Alabama +17.9 154.9 90% 59–108 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Texas Southern +8.1 141.3 80% 62–80 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Alabama A&M +5.3 143.9 72% 56–90 ✓
Lafayette @ Army +2.6 133.7 63% 43–53 ✓
Utah @ Arizona State +2.4 134.7 63% 59–67 ✓
Florida International @ Middle Tennessee +7.6 147.0 79% 58–69 ✓
Duke @ Syracuse -1.1 137.8 46% 77–55 ✓
Yale @ Princeton -1.0 143.3 49% 93–83 ✓
Harvard @ Cornell +5.4 150.1 73% 73–56 ✗
Brown @ Pennsylvania +3.6 143.5 71% 69–90 ✓
Texas A&M @ Missouri +2.3 154.2 60% 69–60 ✗
Liberty @ Jacksonville State -9.6 134.1 16% 79–55 ✓
Stetson @ Florida Gulf Coast +2.6 147.9 64% 88–84 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Prairie View A&M +4.6 139.5 70% 71–82 ✓
Florida A&M @ Alabama State +5.0 129.9 68% 60–54 ✗
Hofstra @ Stony Brook -11.6 132.1 14% 68–65 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.