I'm not a coward; I've just never been tested. "The Impression That I Get" - The Mighty Mighty Bosstones
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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47–16 on winners spread MAE 8.5 63 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Houston @ SMU -15.3 138.0 14% 80–65 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Middle Tennessee -4.2 148.3 30% 70–74 ✗
Wichita State @ Temple +3.6 141.8 67% 79–65 ✗
North Texas @ Louisiana Tech -3.7 130.0 31% 72–62 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Charlotte +4.3 132.3 69% 64–68 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Radford +3.0 139.5 63% 63–54 ✗
Long Island University @ Stonehill +12.3 138.8 87% 60–75 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Sacred Heart +2.5 154.9 61% 86–94 ✓
Wagner @ Central Connecticut +0.0 130.1 47% 57–58 ✓
Old Dominion @ James Madison +8.9 138.9 80% 67–76 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Marshall +13.3 147.4 88% 83–84 ✓
Georgia State @ Coastal Carolina +1.3 142.1 57% 68–77 ✓
Milwaukee @ Youngstown State +8.3 155.8 80% 58–87 ✓
Green Bay @ Robert Morris +11.7 130.4 87% 56–71 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Drexel +0.0 129.9 53% 72–71 ✗
Charleston @ Elon -13.0 146.6 14% 88–66 ✓
William & Mary @ Stony Brook +0.7 129.7 52% 66–71 ✓
Hampton @ Hofstra +17.0 146.0 90% 43–73 ✓
Delaware @ Towson +5.9 139.5 73% 72–95 ✓
Monmouth @ Northeastern +5.8 138.2 73% 62–77 ✓
Liberty @ Kennesaw State -2.5 139.6 37% 81–88 ✗
Queens University @ Jacksonville State +0.5 143.6 49% 69–76 ✓
Merrimack @ Hartford -6.6 126.9 21% 67–59 ✓
North Alabama @ Bellarmine +2.1 144.9 62% 70–57 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Eastern Kentucky +11.4 157.4 87% 58–74 ✓
UCF @ Memphis +5.4 150.2 74% 63–64 ✓
Colorado @ Arizona State +3.0 136.7 66% 67–59 ✗
UTSA @ Rice +10.9 151.9 86% 84–79 ✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Nicholls +1.0 151.0 54% 78–74 ✗
Houston Christian @ Lamar +2.7 149.5 63% 75–91 ✓
Southern Miss @ South Alabama -1.3 137.0 40% 54–85 ✗
UL Monroe @ Louisiana +10.7 145.6 87% 67–84 ✓
North Dakota @ Oral Roberts +17.5 155.2 90% 70–73 ✓
North Dakota State @ Kansas City +0.6 137.2 55% 69–58 ✗
South Dakota @ Omaha +1.5 147.6 60% 72–80 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Southeast Missouri State +6.9 148.0 76% 64–78 ✓
Jacksonville @ Austin Peay -2.3 129.6 38% 60–56 ✓
North Florida @ Lipscomb +5.8 150.8 75% 114–111 ✗
Incarnate Word @ McNeese +4.0 138.9 64% 76–78 ✓
Troy @ Arkansas State -7.2 131.2 24% 67–62 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Little Rock -1.4 159.4 41% 82–81 ✓
Saint Mary's @ San Diego -14.5 141.5 13% 62–59 ✓
UAB @ UTEP -6.0 144.1 29% 79–66 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ East Texas A&M +8.9 146.9 82% 84–78 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Northwestern State +8.8 152.7 82% 76–81 ✓
Ohio State @ Iowa +5.7 153.8 76% 75–92 ✓
Santa Clara @ BYU +4.1 148.6 67% 81–74 ✗
South Dakota State @ Denver -2.4 145.2 41% 80–75 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ UT Martin +0.9 149.3 53% 84–90 ✓
Tennessee State @ Morehead State +2.9 134.8 64% 64–74 ✓
Lindenwood @ Tennessee Tech +5.0 141.2 69% 68–77 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Idaho -0.1 152.2 49% 82–84 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Eastern Washington +10.4 150.6 85% 55–72 ✓
Utah @ Arizona +9.7 151.0 82% 62–88 ✓
California @ USC +13.4 132.5 88% 60–97 ✓
Weber State @ Sacramento State +1.5 134.0 58% 52–49 ✗
Idaho State @ Portland State +2.8 147.8 64% 70–79 ✓
Stanford @ UCLA +13.0 136.2 88% 64–73 ✓
Gonzaga @ Loyola Marymount -5.3 159.3 29% 108–65 ✓
Oregon State @ Washington State +10.3 128.4 84% 62–80 ✓
San Francisco @ Pacific -1.2 156.6 45% 76–68 ✓
Dartmouth @ Cornell +10.6 155.3 86% 83–95 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Kent State +16.8 150.1 90% 54–81 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.