Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | IOWA -275 OSU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +17 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -4.8 (+12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.6 (+7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -6.1 (+10.9) | 155.5 (+11.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -5.1 (+11.9) | 155.0 (+12.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -5.7 (+11.3) | 153.8 (+13.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -6.0 (+11.0) | 156.9 (+10.1) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | OSU 72 – 69 IOWA |
| Feb 26, 2026 | IOWA 74 – 57 OSU |
| Mar 12, 2025 | IOWA 77 – 70 OSU |
| Jan 28, 2025 | OSU 82 – 65 IOWA |
| Mar 14, 2024 | OSU 90 – 78 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 16-19 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 5-15 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#30) | 10.7 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#47) | 0.69 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#45) | 1.28 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#62) | 0.504 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.4% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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