Betting Lines
| Spread | RAD -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | RAD -188 UNCA +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +9 | 117 | Lost |
| Massey | RAD -5.1 (-14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (-21.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RAD -3.5 (-12.5) | 137.6 (-20.6) | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RAD -3.1 (-12.1) | 135.5 (-18.5) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RAD -3.0 (-12.0) | 139.5 (-22.5) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | RAD -3.3 (-12.3) | 140.6 (-23.6) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UNCA 74 – 73 RAD |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UNCA 91 – 72 RAD |
| Feb 21, 2025 | RAD 77 – 53 UNCA |
| Jan 29, 2025 | UNCA 72 – 65 RAD |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UNCA 71 – 62 RAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RAD | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 16-2 |
| Home | 10-3 | 13-0 |
| Away | 7-10 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#148) | -0.4 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#180) | 0.56 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#182) | 0.48 (#135) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#148) | 0.543 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RAD | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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