Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | PAC +188 SF -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +8 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | SF -1.6 (-6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.1 (-12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -1.4 (-6.6) | 155.2 (-11.2) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -3.1 (-4.9) | 154.0 (-10.0) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -1.2 (-6.8) | 156.6 (-12.6) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -1.4 (-6.6) | 157.8 (-13.8) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SF 72 – 61 PAC |
| Feb 1, 2026 | SF 87 – 82 PAC |
| Feb 21, 2025 | SF 71 – 58 PAC |
| Jan 3, 2025 | SF 89 – 81 PAC |
| Feb 4, 2024 | SF 79 – 73 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 7-9 |
| Home | 7-10 | 11-6 |
| Away | 7-7 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#197) | 4.0 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#196) | 0.54 (#125) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#188) | 0.71 (#117) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#250) | 0.496 (#189) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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