Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | USA -111 USM -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +31 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | USM -1.9 (+32.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (+1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -1.1 (+32.1) | 137.9 (+1.1) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -1.9 (+29.1) | 137.4 (+1.6) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -1.3 (+32.3) | 137.0 (+2.0) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USM -1.6 (+32.6) | 137.5 (+1.5) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | USM 68 – 55 USA |
| Feb 13, 2026 | USA 84 – 78 USM |
| Feb 27, 2025 | USA 88 – 82 USM |
| Jan 16, 2025 | USA 75 – 62 USM |
| Feb 29, 2024 | USA 73 – 70 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 14-4 |
| Home | 10-4 | 15-0 |
| Away | 4-10 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 67.5 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#140) | 7.1 (#79) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#215) | 1.94 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#197) | 2.22 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#207) | 0.602 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 20.9% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 14.3% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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