Betting Lines
| Spread | PRST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | PRST -200 IDST +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRST +9 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | PRST -4.6 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (-1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRST -3.2 (+5.8) | 150.8 (-1.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRST -4.6 (+4.4) | 146.7 (+2.3) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRST -2.8 (+6.2) | 147.8 (+1.2) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PRST -2.8 (+6.2) | 151.9 (-2.9) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | PRST 85 – 78 IDST |
| Feb 3, 2026 | PRST 88 – 65 IDST |
| Jan 3, 2026 | PRST 93 – 87 IDST |
| Feb 21, 2025 | IDST 82 – 74 PRST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | PRST 76 – 59 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRST | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 6-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 6-7 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-9 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.2 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#232) | -4.7 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#238) | -1.38 (#297) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#243) | -1.20 (#267) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#238) | 0.419 (#320) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRST | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.7% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.1% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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