Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | ARST +188 TROY -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +5 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -7.1 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -6.3 (+1.3) | 130.9 (-1.9) | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -5.9 (+0.9) | 129.2 (-0.2) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -7.2 (+2.2) | 131.2 (-2.2) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -6.6 (+1.6) | 131.8 (-2.8) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | TROY 99 – 74 ARST |
| Jan 8, 2026 | ARST 86 – 74 TROY |
| Mar 10, 2025 | TROY 94 – 81 ARST |
| Feb 16, 2025 | TROY 71 – 70 ARST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | ARST 84 – 78 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-8 | 11-3 |
| Away | 2-11 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#308) | 2.7 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#311) | 0.26 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.98 (#316) | 0.46 (#137) |
| RPI | 0.404 (#339) | 0.520 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.