Betting Lines
| Spread | NE -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | NE -188 MONM +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NE +15 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | NE -9.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NE -5.4 (+9.6) | 135.4 (+3.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NE -5.8 (+9.2) | 138.2 (+0.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NE -5.3 (+9.7) | 138.8 (+0.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NE -5.2 (+9.8) | 137.1 (+1.9) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | MONM 89 – 83 NE |
| Jan 19, 2026 | MONM 81 – 68 NE |
| Feb 25, 2025 | MONM 78 – 73 NE |
| Feb 10, 2024 | NE 77 – 65 MONM |
| Jan 9, 2024 | MONM 81 – 62 NE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NE | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 7-26 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 5-13 |
| Home | 6-6 | 3-10 |
| Away | 3-12 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 61.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 74.7 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#302) | -13.7 (#352) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.31 (#292) | -1.31 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#280) | -1.71 (#296) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#302) | 0.467 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NE | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 43.2% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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