Betting Lines
| Spread | NE -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | MONM +105 NE -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONM +5 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | NE -0.8 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (+5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NE -0.3 (+5.3) | 140.8 (+10.2) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONM -0.5 (+4.5) | 141.0 (+10.0) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONM -0.2 (+4.8) | 141.9 (+9.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NE -0.4 (+5.4) | 141.4 (+9.6) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | MONM 89 – 83 NE |
| Jan 19, 2026 | MONM 81 – 68 NE |
| Feb 10, 2024 | NE 77 – 65 MONM |
| Jan 9, 2024 | MONM 81 – 62 NE |
| Feb 17, 2023 | NE 77 – 62 MONM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONM | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-14 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#269) | -2.5 (#209) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#259) | -0.18 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.26 (#262) | -0.33 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#248) | 0.500 (#181) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONM | NE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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