Betting Lines
| Spread | MONM -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | MONM -192 NE +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONM +13 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | MONM -3.4 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.4 (-1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONM -2.3 (+10.7) | 142.3 (+6.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONM -2.1 (+10.9) | 142.8 (+6.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONM -2.2 (+10.8) | 143.1 (+5.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONM -2.4 (+10.6) | 143.1 (+5.9) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | MONM 89 – 83 NE |
| Feb 25, 2025 | MONM 78 – 73 NE |
| Feb 10, 2024 | NE 77 – 65 MONM |
| Jan 9, 2024 | MONM 81 – 62 NE |
| Feb 17, 2023 | NE 77 – 62 MONM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONM | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 2-16 |
| Home | 10-4 | 2-10 |
| Away | 6-9 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 81.0 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#211) | -3.0 (#214) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#245) | -0.75 (#236) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#244) | -0.80 (#224) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#247) | 0.472 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONM | NE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 31.9% |
Game Analysis
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