Betting Lines
| Spread | MONM -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
| Money | MONM -145 NE +122 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONM +19 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | MONM -5.2 (+13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (+0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONM -4.4 (+14.6) | 137.2 (+5.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONM -3.6 (+15.4) | 136.0 (+7.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONM -3.7 (+15.3) | 136.9 (+6.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONM -3.9 (+15.1) | 137.1 (+5.9) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | MONM 89 – 83 NE |
| Jan 19, 2026 | MONM 81 – 68 NE |
| Feb 25, 2025 | MONM 78 – 73 NE |
| Feb 10, 2024 | NE 77 – 65 MONM |
| Feb 17, 2023 | NE 77 – 62 MONM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONM | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-1 | 7-5 |
| Away | 2-13 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 72.3 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#177) | -1.7 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#101) | -0.53 (#224) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#106) | -0.47 (#208) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#107) | 0.479 (#214) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONM | NE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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