Betting Lines
| Spread | NE -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | NE -175 MONM +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NE +12 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | NE -0.8 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (-3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NE -0.3 (+11.7) | 143.0 (-1.0) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NE -1.8 (+10.2) | 142.0 (+0.0) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NE -0.8 (+11.2) | 143.0 (-1.0) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NE -0.2 (+11.8) | 142.8 (-0.8) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | MONM 89 – 83 NE |
| Jan 19, 2026 | MONM 81 – 68 NE |
| Feb 25, 2025 | MONM 78 – 73 NE |
| Jan 9, 2024 | MONM 81 – 62 NE |
| Feb 17, 2023 | NE 77 – 62 MONM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NE | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-5 | 13-1 |
| Away | 4-13 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.3 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#233) | -1.0 (#181) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#242) | 0.33 (#148) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#231) | 0.37 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#226) | 0.515 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NE | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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