Betting Lines
| Spread | UTM -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | UTM +100 SIUE +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTM +6 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | UTM -1.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (+25.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTM -0.4 (+5.6) | 153.0 (+21.0) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTM -0.5 (+5.5) | 152.4 (+21.6) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTM -0.9 (+5.1) | 149.3 (+24.7) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTM -0.3 (+5.7) | 151.1 (+22.9) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | UTM 81 – 76 SIUE |
| Jan 16, 2026 | UTM 65 – 59 SIUE |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UTM 76 – 71 SIUE |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UTM 85 – 82 SIUE |
| Feb 3, 2024 | UTM 90 – 79 SIUE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTM | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#259) | -2.7 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#259) | -0.31 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.14 (#261) | -0.71 (#236) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#242) | 0.503 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTM | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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