Betting Lines
| Spread | UTM -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | UTM -120 SIUE +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTM +3 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | UTM -1.7 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.8 (+34.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTM -1.3 (+1.7) | 136.9 (+30.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTM -0.2 (+2.8) | 133.5 (+33.5) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SIUE -0.2 (+3.2) | 133.8 (+33.2) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIUE -0.5 (+3.5) | 134.5 (+32.5) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | UTM 81 – 76 SIUE |
| Jan 16, 2026 | UTM 65 – 59 SIUE |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UTM 76 – 71 SIUE |
| Feb 3, 2024 | UTM 90 – 79 SIUE |
| Mar 3, 2023 | UTM 81 – 75 SIUE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTM | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 13-7 |
| Home | 8-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-12 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#262) | -3.7 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.35 (#291) | -0.49 (#216) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#299) | -0.91 (#232) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#286) | 0.471 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTM | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.6% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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