Hmm, you're so pretty, not to talk to you would be a crime. "Baby, Baby" - The Vibrators
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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41–15 on winners spread MAE 8.5 56 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Alabama @ Tennessee +2.5 142.7 58% 59–68 ✓
Virginia @ Louisville -14.8 132.8 13% 61–58 ✓
Xavier @ Marquette +6.6 161.1 74% 68–69 ✓
Cincinnati @ East Carolina -6.5 144.9 31% 71–75 ✗
Boston University @ Holy Cross -0.2 136.2 47% 69–71 ✗
Lafayette @ Loyola Maryland -1.8 130.8 40% 70–73 ✗
Army @ Colgate +11.8 146.7 86% 86–93 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech -5.9 141.7 27% 70–77 ✗
Florida State @ Clemson +11.0 148.2 86% 54–94 ✓
NJIT @ Binghamton +2.5 137.4 63% 67–86 ✓
New Hampshire @ Vermont +11.8 135.6 86% 51–80 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Bryant +1.4 152.5 57% 85–71 ✗
UMBC @ UAlbany -6.4 145.3 24% 74–81 ✗
Navy @ Lehigh -2.1 138.1 42% 75–64 ✓
VCU @ Rhode Island -5.8 134.9 25% 55–54 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Fordham +5.5 136.3 75% 63–78 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Duquesne +6.9 144.9 79% 62–76 ✓
Richmond @ La Salle +1.5 141.1 57% 62–68 ✓
George Mason @ George Washington -0.2 147.5 50% 66–53 ✓
Longwood @ South Carolina Upstate -2.2 134.8 41% 67–72 ✗
High Point @ Presbyterian -0.1 139.7 47% 71–69 ✓
Winthrop @ Gardner-Webb +8.6 136.1 79% 86–78 ✗
Charleston Southern @ Campbell +4.9 144.7 69% 51–67 ✓
Chattanooga @ VMI -7.8 145.5 23% 78–58 ✓
Furman @ The Citadel -12.7 147.4 14% 65–69 ✗
East Tennessee State @ Western Carolina +2.5 142.5 64% 66–68 ✓
Mercer @ Wofford +2.2 142.1 64% 67–70 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Oakland +12.1 148.7 87% 81–85 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Stetson +3.2 147.7 67% 72–75 ✓
Evansville @ Belmont +14.1 146.5 88% 63–95 ✓
Tarleton State @ Stephen F. Austin +5.3 141.2 73% 60–65 ✓
UT Arlington @ Sam Houston +12.7 131.2 87% 56–66 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Samford +1.2 141.7 57% 71–83 ✓
South Florida @ Tulsa -3.8 148.1 34% 96–69 ✓
Indiana State @ UIC -8.9 148.3 20% 79–60 ✓
Murray State @ Illinois State +1.1 144.6 57% 76–75 ✗
Missouri State @ Bradley +10.6 132.2 83% 54–64 ✓
Kentucky @ Mississippi State +4.2 130.2 69% 71–68 ✗
Indiana @ Northwestern +0.9 133.1 53% 62–64 ✓
TCU @ Iowa State +3.5 133.8 65% 59–70 ✓
Drake @ Northern Iowa -5.5 143.8 26% 82–74 ✓
Arkansas @ Texas A&M +2.5 143.4 63% 56–62 ✓
Davidson @ Saint Louis +5.0 143.9 71% 65–78 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Grand Canyon +10.3 146.3 86% 77–76 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ UC Davis +10.1 139.6 87% 62–73 ✓
Boise State @ Colorado State -4.9 136.8 29% 80–78 ✓
Seattle U @ California Baptist +0.6 134.0 51% 63–84 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC Riverside +1.8 153.2 61% 76–88 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal Poly -0.2 124.2 49% 70–62 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC San Diego -4.6 131.3 30% 76–73 ✓
UC Irvine @ UC Santa Barbara +2.1 140.9 63% 70–59 ✗
San Diego State @ Fresno State -8.2 132.8 20% 45–43 ✓
Oregon @ Washington -1.9 142.2 44% 71–72 ✗
Saint Francis @ St. Francis Brooklyn +0.3 137.9 51% 72–64 ✗
Purdue @ Maryland +1.3 132.3 56% 54–68 ✓
Texas State @ App State +3.2 128.6 63% 75–82 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.