Don't talk to me about your big, big heroes "Kelly's Heroes" - Black Grape
Missouri Valley Conference · Curb Event Center Arena · February 16, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread BEL -17.5 Home covered
O/U 149.5 Over
Money BEL -2500 / EVAN +1000
Model Predictions
Spread Total BEL win
Actual BEL +32 158 Won
Massey BEL -18.2 (+13.8)
Massey Totals 145.6 (+12.4)
Bradley-Terry 96%
Weighted B-T 97%
Efficiency Plus ML BEL -17.5 (+14.5) 146.7 (+11.3) 89%
Baseline Tuned ML BEL -14.1 (+17.9) 146.5 (+11.5) 88%
Baseline ML BEL -14.6 (+17.4) 146.4 (+11.6) 88%
Baseline Plus ML BEL -14.7 (+17.3) 148.3 (+9.7) 88%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 26, 2026 BEL 9864 EVAN
Dec 17, 2025 BEL 8378 EVAN
Feb 2, 2025 EVAN 8075 BEL
Jan 18, 2025 BEL 8582 EVAN
Mar 3, 2024 BEL 8366 EVAN

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BEL EVAN
Overall 21-11 5-27
Conference 14-6 1-19
Home 12-2 3-10
Away 7-7 1-14
Neutral 2-2 1-3
Last 5 2-3 1-4
Streak L1 L6
Avg Pts For 76.3 62.4
Avg Pts Against 72.5 76.0
Massey 2.5 (#126) -12.0 (#344)
Bradley-Terry 0.66 (#115) -1.89 (#335)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.54 (#132) -2.33 (#334)
RPI 0.555 (#81) 0.408 (#334)
Shooting & Four Factors BEL EVAN
FG% 46.9% 40.1%
3PT% 39.8% 32.7%
REB / G 32.1 32.0
OREB / G 8.4 7.8
AST / TO 1.27 0.83
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.2% 45.6%
TOV% 17.5% 18.0%
ORB% 25.8% 20.8%
FT Rate 17.7% 19.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.1% 54.6%
Opp TOV% 18.6% 18.9%
DRB% 68.7% 75.3%
Opp FT Rate 18.8% 22.8%

Game Analysis

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