Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | GT +333 VT -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GT +7 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | VT -6.4 (+13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (+7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -5.4 (+12.4) | 142.5 (+4.5) | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -7.3 (+14.3) | 140.2 (+6.8) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -5.9 (+12.9) | 141.7 (+5.3) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VT -6.3 (+13.3) | 142.4 (+4.6) | 32% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | VT 71 – 65 GT |
| Jan 23, 2025 | GT 71 – 64 VT |
| Jan 27, 2024 | VT 91 – 67 GT |
| Feb 24, 2022 | VT 62 – 58 GT |
| Feb 3, 2022 | VT 81 – 66 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-6 | 13-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#205) | 8.4 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#200) | 1.41 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#194) | 1.92 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#225) | 0.565 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 15.4% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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