Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | VT -500 GT +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +6 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | VT -11.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.7 (-20.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -11.8 (-5.8) | 154.3 (-18.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -9.4 (-3.4) | 154.2 (-18.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -11.0 (-5.0) | 151.2 (-15.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -10.6 (-4.6) | 153.1 (-17.1) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2025 | GT 71 – 64 VT |
| Jan 27, 2024 | VT 91 – 67 GT |
| Feb 16, 2023 | GT 77 – 70 VT |
| Feb 24, 2022 | VT 62 – 58 GT |
| Feb 3, 2022 | VT 81 – 66 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | GT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 2-16 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-9 |
| Away | 3-7 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L12 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#54) | 2.5 (#129) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.13 (#45) | 0.09 (#161) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.86 (#45) | -0.02 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.609 (#30) | 0.502 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | GT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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