Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +4 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | VT -7.9 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.6 (-10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -6.5 (+2.5) | 133.3 (-13.3) | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -5.1 (+1.1) | 131.0 (-11.0) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -5.8 (+1.8) | 134.5 (-14.5) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -6.2 (+2.2) | 133.1 (-13.1) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | VT 71 – 65 GT |
| Jan 23, 2025 | GT 71 – 64 VT |
| Jan 27, 2024 | VT 91 – 67 GT |
| Feb 16, 2023 | GT 77 – 70 VT |
| Feb 3, 2022 | VT 81 – 66 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 11-9 |
| Home | 9-10 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#152) | 11.4 (#33) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#174) | 1.20 (#88) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#154) | 1.70 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#234) | 0.548 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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