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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
16–9 on winners
spread MAE 10.2
25 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Creighton
@
Providence
|
+2.1 | 143.3 | 59% | 86–94 | ✓ |
NC State
@
Syracuse
|
-2.1 | 147.8 | 39% | 72–75 | ✗ |
Southern Illinois
@
Valparaiso
|
-4.3 | 132.8 | 29% | 66–62 | ✓ |
Notre Dame
@
Duke
|
+13.6 | 139.8 | 88% | 64–68 | ✓ |
Illinois
@
Penn State
|
-2.0 | 142.7 | 42% | 81–93 | ✗ |
Missouri
@
Auburn
|
+5.3 | 152.1 | 69% | 56–89 | ✓ |
Loyola Chicago
@
Massachusetts
|
+6.4 | 148.1 | 74% | 64–62 | ✗ |
Akron
@
Eastern Michigan
|
-7.6 | 149.4 | 20% | 78–51 | ✓ |
Miami (OH)
@
Toledo
|
+13.9 | 154.0 | 88% | 71–89 | ✓ |
Northern Illinois
@
Ball State
|
+9.3 | 147.6 | 83% | 77–87 | ✓ |
Central Michigan
@
Bowling Green
|
+4.0 | 142.7 | 66% | 77–74 | ✗ |
Buffalo
@
Ohio
|
+4.6 | 158.6 | 71% | 61–85 | ✓ |
Kent State
@
Western Michigan
|
-12.9 | 140.7 | 13% | 82–58 | ✓ |
Butler
@
Villanova
|
+5.4 | 130.1 | 70% | 50–62 | ✓ |
Nebraska
@
Rutgers
|
+10.7 | 133.2 | 84% | 82–72 | ✗ |
LSU
@
Georgia
|
+3.5 | 140.8 | 69% | 63–65 | ✓ |
Kansas
@
Oklahoma State
|
+1.5 | 138.8 | 58% | 87–76 | ✗ |
Kansas State
@
Oklahoma
|
-1.0 | 143.7 | 46% | 65–79 | ✗ |
Boston College
@
Pittsburgh
|
+12.5 | 141.8 | 88% | 58–77 | ✓ |
St. John's
@
DePaul
|
-1.2 | 156.4 | 44% | 92–83 | ✓ |
Michigan
@
Wisconsin
|
+2.5 | 132.1 | 65% | 59–64 | ✓ |
Air Force
@
Utah State
|
+12.1 | 142.2 | 88% | 65–80 | ✓ |
Wyoming
@
New Mexico
|
+12.2 | 153.4 | 87% | 70–56 | ✗ |
San José State
@
UNLV
|
+4.7 | 138.8 | 70% | 75–66 | ✗ |
Ole Miss
@
Florida
|
+8.2 | 139.1 | 78% | 64–79 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.