Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | USU -1200 AF +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +15 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | USU -13.7 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (+3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -12.4 (+2.6) | 140.8 (+4.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -13.0 (+2.0) | 140.4 (+4.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -12.1 (+2.9) | 142.2 (+2.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -12.2 (+2.8) | 142.1 (+2.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | USU 99 – 62 AF |
| Mar 8, 2025 | USU 87 – 47 AF |
| Jan 25, 2025 | USU 87 – 58 AF |
| Mar 2, 2024 | USU 72 – 60 AF |
| Jan 2, 2024 | USU 88 – 60 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-9 |
| Away | 7-4 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 10.9 (#36) | 0.8 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#43) | 0.04 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.51 (#36) | 0.06 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#22) | 0.470 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 40.1% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 29.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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