Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -22.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | USU -10000 AF +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +40 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | USU -23.4 (+16.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (-11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -20.6 (+19.4) | 142.1 (-8.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -20.3 (+19.7) | 146.5 (-12.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -23.0 (+17.0) | 147.1 (-13.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -22.4 (+17.6) | 144.8 (-10.8) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | USU 99 – 62 AF |
| Jan 25, 2025 | USU 87 – 58 AF |
| Mar 2, 2024 | USU 72 – 60 AF |
| Jan 2, 2024 | USU 88 – 60 AF |
| Feb 15, 2023 | USU 80 – 65 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 1-19 |
| Home | 15-2 | 3-13 |
| Away | 7-4 | 0-14 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 61.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 73.7 |
| Massey | 12.0 (#48) | -8.2 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.52 (#34) | -2.18 (#336) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.91 (#40) | -2.38 (#329) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#23) | 0.412 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.61 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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