Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | AF +250 USU -320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +28 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -8.7 (-19.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.4 (+12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -8.5 (-19.5) | 140.0 (+8.0) | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -7.8 (-20.2) | 139.8 (+8.2) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -9.7 (-18.3) | 140.0 (+8.0) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -8.2 (-19.8) | 141.3 (+6.7) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | USU 99 – 62 AF |
| Mar 8, 2025 | USU 87 – 47 AF |
| Jan 25, 2025 | USU 87 – 58 AF |
| Mar 2, 2024 | USU 72 – 60 AF |
| Feb 15, 2023 | USU 80 – 65 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 14-4 |
| Home | 4-12 | 14-1 |
| Away | 5-8 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#206) | 11.2 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#239) | 2.78 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#229) | 3.01 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.415 (#307) | 0.657 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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