Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -22.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | AF +1700 USU -4500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +37 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -22.8 (-14.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (+25.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -16.2 (-20.8) | 135.2 (+25.8) | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -15.7 (-21.3) | 133.9 (+27.1) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -19.6 (-17.4) | 134.8 (+26.2) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -19.9 (-17.1) | 133.9 (+27.1) | 12% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2025 | USU 87 – 47 AF |
| Jan 25, 2025 | USU 87 – 58 AF |
| Mar 2, 2024 | USU 72 – 60 AF |
| Jan 2, 2024 | USU 88 – 60 AF |
| Feb 15, 2023 | USU 80 – 65 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-29 | 29-7 |
| Conference | 0-20 | 15-5 |
| Home | 3-15 | 14-1 |
| Away | 0-12 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L25 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.5 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.9 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -10.9 (#325) | 15.7 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.92 (#318) | 2.75 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.50 (#317) | 3.18 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.409 (#323) | 0.642 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 51.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 58.1% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 37.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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