Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | AF +1000 USU -2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +29 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -15.9 (-13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -16.0 (-13.0) | 137.7 (+7.3) | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -15.1 (-13.9) | 136.3 (+8.7) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -14.1 (-14.9) | 138.6 (+6.4) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -13.1 (-15.9) | 140.1 (+4.9) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | USU 99 – 62 AF |
| Mar 8, 2025 | USU 87 – 47 AF |
| Mar 2, 2024 | USU 72 – 60 AF |
| Jan 2, 2024 | USU 88 – 60 AF |
| Feb 15, 2023 | USU 80 – 65 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 1-19 | 15-5 |
| Home | 3-13 | 15-2 |
| Away | 0-14 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.9 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -6.2 (#266) | 13.0 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.20 (#333) | 3.02 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.44 (#321) | 3.93 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.391 (#342) | 0.633 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 29.7 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.