Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | USU -4000 AF +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +12 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | USU -19.3 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (-9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -16.8 (-4.8) | 139.7 (-7.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -17.1 (-5.1) | 139.0 (-7.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -16.3 (-4.3) | 139.8 (-7.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -16.3 (-4.3) | 141.1 (-9.1) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | USU 99 – 62 AF |
| Mar 8, 2025 | USU 87 – 47 AF |
| Jan 25, 2025 | USU 87 – 58 AF |
| Jan 2, 2024 | USU 88 – 60 AF |
| Feb 15, 2023 | USU 80 – 65 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 2-16 |
| Home | 14-1 | 4-12 |
| Away | 8-4 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 11.5 (#45) | -4.6 (#254) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.68 (#9) | -0.91 (#270) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.79 (#26) | -1.00 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.626 (#11) | 0.444 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 28.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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