Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | PROV -111 CREI -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +8 | 180 | Won |
| Massey | CREI -0.3 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (+35.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -2.0 (+6.0) | 145.2 (+34.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -2.1 (+5.9) | 144.2 (+35.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -2.1 (+5.9) | 143.3 (+36.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -2.2 (+5.8) | 143.5 (+36.5) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | PROV 79 – 76 CREI |
| Jan 16, 2026 | PROV 93 – 88 CREI |
| Feb 6, 2025 | CREI 80 – 69 PROV |
| Jan 15, 2025 | CREI 84 – 64 PROV |
| Mar 14, 2024 | PROV 78 – 73 CREI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 14-6 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 6-6 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 11.3 (#33) | 15.3 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.05 (#35) | 2.08 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.75 (#26) | 2.87 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#52) | 0.592 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 12.8% |
Game Analysis
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