Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | VILL -500 BTLR +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +12 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -5.9 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.5 (-15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -5.4 (+6.6) | 132.4 (-20.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -6.4 (+5.6) | 129.7 (-17.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -5.4 (+6.6) | 130.1 (-18.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -5.7 (+6.3) | 131.5 (-19.5) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | VILL 82 – 73 BTLR |
| Jan 3, 2026 | VILL 85 – 67 BTLR |
| Mar 1, 2025 | VILL 80 – 70 BTLR |
| Jan 1, 2025 | VILL 73 – 65 BTLR |
| Feb 20, 2024 | VILL 72 – 62 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 6-14 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-6 |
| Away | 5-9 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 6.9 (#79) | 4.6 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#104) | 0.98 (#92) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#93) | 1.18 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#134) | 0.515 (#150) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 20.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 14.8% |
Game Analysis
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