Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | TOL -1400 M-OH +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +18 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -16.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.3 (-3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -14.3 (+3.7) | 156.0 (+4.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -16.0 (+2.0) | 152.8 (+7.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -13.9 (+4.1) | 154.0 (+6.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -14.7 (+3.3) | 155.1 (+4.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | M-OH 74 – 72 TOL |
| Jan 9, 2026 | M-OH 87 – 73 TOL |
| Feb 12, 2025 | M-OH 92 – 80 TOL |
| Mar 6, 2024 | TOL 97 – 63 M-OH |
| Jan 6, 2024 | TOL 68 – 64 M-OH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-1 | 9-9 |
| Away | 10-4 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.9 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 77.3 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#98) | -8.1 (#307) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#90) | -2.18 (#348) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#102) | -2.43 (#337) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#87) | 0.404 (#337) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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