Betting Lines
| Spread | MASS -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | MASS -188 LUC +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MASS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +2 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | MASS -8.1 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (-19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MASS -5.7 (-7.7) | 148.8 (-22.8) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MASS -6.9 (-8.9) | 145.8 (-19.8) | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MASS -5.8 (-7.8) | 142.6 (-16.6) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MASS -6.4 (-8.4) | 148.1 (-22.1) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2025 | LUC 74 – 51 MASS |
| Jan 18, 2024 | LUC 79 – 78 MASS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MASS | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 4-14 |
| Home | 8-6 | 6-8 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#195) | -5.6 (#265) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#156) | -1.04 (#272) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#164) | -1.17 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#144) | 0.438 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MASS | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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